what stage is egypt in the demographic transition model

In the twentieth century, the falls in death rates in developing countries tended to be substantially faster. The concept of demographic transition has four stages, including the pre-industrial stage, the transition stage, the . Which factor is viewed as responsible for Stage 2 of the epidemiological transition? The model is based on the change in crudebirth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) over time. People are living much longer. Though this version of the demographic transition is composed of three stages, you'll find similar models in texts as well as ones that include four or even five stages. No official country in the world is currently in stage 1. Fertility decline is caused as much by changes in values about children and gender as by the availability of contraceptives and knowledge of how to use them. They now have less time to raise children, and society starts to move away from the patriarchal view that women are meant only for childbearing. Stages: Dependency Ratio. Which of these countries has the highest population? Demographic transition involves four stages. The peculiarities of Ireland's past demography and its recent rapid changes challenge established theory. e) Governments in developing countries have greater health care expenditures than developed countries. b) dependency ratio. a) teaching people to become more active consumers. There may be small communities of humans that are in stage 1 of the DTM. b) number of people per area of arable land. The recent changes have mirrored inward changes in Irish society, with respect to family planning, women in the work force, the sharply declining power of the Catholic Church, and the emigration factor. e) pandemics like the bubonic plague, influenza, or AIDS. b) Only physiological density measures the amount of farming technology available, such as tractors. High infant mortality and very low life expectancy. Some say fertility levels decrease during this stage while others hypothesize that they increase. These are not so much medical breakthroughs (Europe passed through stage two before the advances of the mid-twentieth century, although there was significant medical progress in the nineteenth century, such as the development of. While most models suggest that the birth rates will stabilize at low levels, others argue that they may rise again. The changing demographics of the U.S. in the last two centuries did not parallel this model. [51], The changes, increased numbers of women choosing to not marry or have children, increased cohabitation outside marriage, increased childbearing by single mothers, increased participation by women in higher education and professional careers, and other changes are associated with increased individualism and autonomy, particularly of women. Reviewers ensure all content reflects expert academic consensus and is backed up with reference to academic studies. This dropping death rate but thestable birth rate at the beginning of Stage II contributed to skyrocketing population growth rates. The average number of children women bear in their lifetimes is "Demographic Transition." Burth rate begins to fall, Marketing Essentials: The Deca Connection, Carl A. Woloszyk, Grady Kimbrell, Lois Schneider Farese, Anderson's Business Law and the Legal Environment, Comprehensive Volume, David Twomey, Marianne Jennings, Stephanie Greene, Elliot Aronson, Robin M. Akert, Samuel R. Sommers, Timothy D. Wilson, The Cultural Landscape: An Introduction to Human Geography, AP Edition. d) The population is declining rapidly. Though fertility rates rebounded initially and almost reached 7 children/woman in the mid-1920s, they were depressed by the 193133 famine, crashed due to the Second World War in 1941, and only rebounded to a sustained level of 3 children/woman after the war. b) North America In addition, as they became adults they became a major input to the family business, mainly farming, and were the primary form of insurance for adults in old age. The prevalence and duration of breast-feeding: a critical review of available information. Seekprofessional input on your specific circumstances. MaterialMMaterialRPaintTotalcost200units@$250=95units@180=55units@75=$50,00017,1004,125$71,225. a) reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases Julia Beecher, chief financial ofcer of Keller Wireless, is responsible for the companys budgeting process. d) declining crude birth rates. There are factors such as religion that keep some countries' birth rate from dropping. e) The dependency ratio is low. Still, some degree of demographic transition is widely accepted in social sciences. 5 stages of Demographic Transition Theory: First stage: The stage includes a very high growth in death rates and birth rates. DTM assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate. Which country once included controversial sterilization camps as part of its national family-planning program? Examples of countries in this stage include Malaysia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, etc. The CBR is determined by taking the number of births in one year in a country, dividing it by the country's population, and multiplying the number by 1,000. You can clearly trace France's population through the stages, ignoring, of course, the baby boom (see below). Definition: The Demographic Transition Model (apprev. c) reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases. The stages of the epidemiologic transition are based on Describe two changes within Egyptian society that would likely be necessary for Egypt to transition to the next stage in the model. Some trends in waterborne bacterial infant mortality are also disturbing in countries like Malawi, Sudan and Nigeria; for example, progress in the DTM clearly arrested and reversed between 1975 and 2005. b) overpopulation. In summary, the demographic transition model is a model that helps human geographers understand and predict the demographics of individual nations. By 1970 Russia was firmly in stage four, with crude birth rates and crude death rates on the order of 15/1000 and 9/1000 respectively. Stage 3 Demographic Transition. What happens to the desired family size in stage 4? In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of women) and economic development, to low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, education and economic Birth Rate and Death Rate of Australia, 1950-2010 Demographic transition of Australia, 1921-2051 Marked by low birth and death rates. answer choices. [14], The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a conceptual framework first formulated in 1986 by Ron Lesthaeghe and Dirk van de Kaa in a short article that was published in the Dutch sociology journal Mens en Maatschappij. Economic liberalization increased economic opportunities and risks for individuals, while also increasing the price and often reducing the quality of these services, all affecting demographic trends. d) CDR and CBR both tend to be higher in developing countries. c) The population is growing rapidly. So, the population becomes more youthful, and the bottom of the age pyramid widens because of the large number of infants, children, and teenagers. e) Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are in Stage 2 of the demographic transition. It works on the premise that birth and death rates are connected to and correlate with stages of industrial development. d) life expectancy, crude birth rate, crude death rate Birth and death rates largely plateaued in most developed nations in the late 1900s. Which countries are in Stage 3 of the demographic transition model? a) has more hospitals beds per person. The rst was the "age of pesti- Countries that have experienced a fertility decline of 2550% include: Guatemala, Tajikistan, Egypt and Zimbabwe. The number of deaths in one year is divided by the population and that figure is multiplied by 1,000. [13] The changes leading to this stage in Europe were initiated in the Agricultural Revolution of the eighteenth century and were initially quite slow. The DTM is a key tool for understanding global and regional population dynamics. Stage 1 (High Fluctuating): The first stage consists of high birth and death rates. [33], Goli and Arokiasamy (2013) indicate that India has a sustainable demographic transition beginning in the mid-1960s and a fertility transition beginning in post-1965. [45], It must be remembered that the DTM is only a model and cannot necessarily predict the future. d) Malthus argued that disease and war increase the CDR, so people needed to increase the CBR to keep populations from collapsing. [39] Russia then quickly transitioned through stage three. CartonDimensions\begin{array}{c c c} Population aging and population decline may eventually occur, assuming that the fertility rate does not change and sustained mass immigration does not occur. 30 seconds. Grandparents are part of every stage of the DTM but will be rare in societies with shorter life expectancies. Careers. On the Demographic Transition Model, which stage (s) is/are characterized by HIGH death rates, High BIRTH RATES, but LOW populations. c) crude death rate, crude birth rate, total fertility rate As a result, Africa is only now starting to broadly benefit from the demographic dividend. [48]:181[48][49][50] SDT addressed the changes in the patterns of sexual and reproductive behavior which occurred in North America and Western Europe in the period from about 1963, when the birth control pill and other cheap effective contraceptive methods such as the IUD were adopted by the general population, to the present. [2] Scholars debate whether industrialization and higher incomes lead to lower population, or whether lower populations lead to industrialization and higher incomes. I think thats the fastest Ive ever received a comment from uploading an article. a) Southeast Asia c) malnourishment Then, follow the instructions in this list of activities. Demographic transition involves four stages. c) Both physiological and agricultural density make comparisons to the total amount of land area. e) crude birth rate. However, the impact of the state was felt through natural forces, and it varied over time. 3. Landlordism collapsed in the wake of de-colonization, and the consequent reduction in inequality accelerated human and physical capital accumulation, hence leading to growth in South Korea. Reduced to a bare minimum due to high cost of living. Bethesda, MD 20894, Web Policies c) information about sexually transmitted diseases. b) Malthus claimed that the population was growing much more rapidly than Earth's food supply. \end{array} This may be the result of a departure from the environment of evolutionary adaptedness. Because of medical advancements in stage 2, the infant mortality rate is at a low 3.6 which means that there is a higher CBR. Explain your answer using data from the table. It is not necessarily applicable at very high levels of development. The global data no longer support the suggestion that fertility rates tend to broadly rise at very high levels of national development. c) increasing crude birth rates. 8600 Rockville Pike Stage 2 (Early Expanding): In the second stage, there is a sharp decline in death rates, causing the population to grow rapidly. (2.5 \text{ ft} & \times & 1.5 \text{ ft} & \times & 1.0\text{ ft} & = & ?) When the death rate declines in Stage 2, it means the increasing survival of children. This model involves four stages based on economic, technological, and social development changes with population size and social behaviors. What stage is the US in the demographic transition model Generally in this demographic transition model, the countries in Stage 2 are the 'less economically developed countries'. a) the doubling time between 1920 and 2020 will be repeated in 2120 There is a low birth rate because people are now more thoughtful about having children, women have greater opportunities to be independent, and there are easily accessible contraceptives. Countries at this. a) Stage 1 In the speculation concerning future population and global resources, which is the most accurate description of how both sides may be correct? The population of Russia nearly quadrupled during the 19th century, from 30 million to 133 million, and continued to grow until the First World War and the turmoil that followed. Both these drastically increase the cost of raising children, making people reassess their ability to have them. This leads to a negative NIR. However, this late decline occurred from a very low initial level. Demographic transition is a model used to represent the movement of high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. Improved diets & & & & & & & &\textbf{of Items} & & \textbf{Space}\\\hline Which of the following is true about global medical services? e) Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are in Stage 2 of the demographic transition. In Stage 4, both the birth and death rates are low, causing the population to stabilize. Family planning and contraception has been readily available This site needs JavaScript to work properly. [2][20] However, fertility rates declined significantly in many very high development countries between 2010 and 2018, including in countries with high levels of gender parity. d) decrease in the amount of arable land More population growth than would otherwise occur. Which of the following is one of the reasons why the study of population geography is especially important? Russia's population peaked in the early 1990s at about 148 million people, but, based on current trends is expected to decline to 136 million by 2050, due to low birth rates and relatively high mortality. Sparsely populated interior of the country allowed ample room to accommodate all the "excess" people, counteracting mechanisms (spread of communicable diseases due to overcrowding, low real wages and insufficient calories per capita due to the limited amount of available agricultural land) which led to high mortality in the Old World. There are four stages to the classical demographic transition model: Stage 1: Pre-transition. Over time, children became an added expense and were less able to contribute to the wealth of a family. The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors: A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid growth in population growth (a.k.a. Understanding overall contributions to population changes can influence economic and political changes in the future. Less developed countries began the transition later and are still in the midst of earlier stages of the model. Enter the beginning raw materials inventory dollar amounts for each of these materials on their respective ledger cards. Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates. Brazil is currently in stage 4 of the demographic transition model (DTM) along with Argentina, the United States and much of Europe, however the country stands out due to the fast pace and lack of government intervention during its transition. As such, Stage 3 is often viewed as a marker of significant development. 2. The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is based on historical population trends of two demographic characteristics - birth rate and death rate - to suggest that a country's total population growth rate cycles through stages as that country develops economically. 1 point. In the late 18th and early 19th centuries Merina state policies stimulated agricultural production, which helped to create a larger and healthier population and laid the foundation for Merina military and economic expansion within Madagascar. During the second half of the twentieth century less-developed countries entered Stage Two, creating the worldwide rapid growth of number of living people that has demographers concerned today. What happens to the death rate at stage 4? Date the budget simply 2017, and denote the beginning and ending cash balances as beginning and ending. Assume the company expects 2017 to be the same as 2016, but with the following changes. [Child survival, fertility, and family planning in Africa. Identify stage 2 of the DTM on a population pyramid. And so at this phase, women might be entering in the workforce in a major way. In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of women) and economic development, to low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, education and economic development, as well as the stages between these two scenarios. The Easterlin-Crimmins (1982, 1985) model was the framework chosen for the examination. What is the demographic transition model used for? The distribution of the French population therefore seems increasingly defined not only by interregional mobility but also by the residential preferences of individual households. e) CBR is higher in developed countries than in developing ones. c) The United States and Australia spend the same on healthcare. e) "improving men's educational attainment in conjunction with small loans to businesses owned by men in small communities. In this stage there is a very high birth rate, but also a very high death rate. Things like cancer and heart disease are the leading causes of death. For example. You need to be able to recognize the 5 stages of the DTM when looking at a population pyramid. Since 1982 the same significant tendencies have occurred throughout mainland France: demographic stagnation in the least-populated rural regions and industrial regions in the northeast, with strong growth in the southwest and along the Atlantic coast, plus dynamism in metropolitan areas. In stage one of the demographic transition model, the pyramids have the most defined shape. \text{Collections from customers}&\$66,000\\ \text{Cash payments for operating expenses}&(13,600)\\ Based on the information provided, which conclusion is correct? Starts to decline because the death rate is higher than the birth rate, Death rate begins to fall Low Growth. Your email address will not be published. People are still living longer, but because of better healthcare, treatments, and medical technology people are able to survive cancer and heart disease. Mortality rose above the European Community average, and in 1991 Irish fertility fell to replacement level. Death rates were high due to disease and a lack of hygiene. What happens to the birth rate in stage 4? CashFlowsfromOperatingActivitiesCollectionsfromcustomersInterestreceivedCashpaymentsforinventoryCashpaymentsforoperatingexpensesNetcashprovidedbyoperatingactivitiesCashFlowsfromInvestingActivitiesPurchasesofequipmentPurchasesofinvestmentsSalesofinvestmentsNetcashusedforinvestingactivitiesCashFlowsfromFinancingActivitiesPaymentoflong-termdebtIssuanceofstockPaymentofcashdividendsNetcashprovidedbyfinancingactivitiesCashIncrease(decrease)inCashCash,beginningofyearCash,endofyear$66,000600(45,000)(13,600)8,000(4,600)(200)900(3,900)(400)1,400(300)7004,8003,300$8,100. d) there are no more hosts of the disease Countries that were at this stage (total fertility rate between 2.0 and 2.5) in 2015 include: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cabo Verde, El Salvador, Faroe Islands, Grenada, Guam, India, Indonesia, Kosovo, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mexico, Myanmar, Nepal, New Caledonia, Nicaragua, Palau, Peru, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tunisia, Turkey and Venezuela.[19]. \text{Material M}&\text{200 units @ \$250 =}&\text{\$\hspace{1pt}50,000}\\ In pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates were both high, and fluctuated rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population. From 1820, the cost of such expansionism led the state to increase its exploitation of forced labor at the expense of agricultural production and thus transformed it into a negative demographic force. Your email address will not be published. c) the number of people having babies will continue to drop Notably, some historic populations have taken many years to replace lives after events such as the Black Death. MeSH The Easterlin-Crimmins (1982, 1985) model was the framework chosen for the examination. The demographic transition model seeks to explain the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. Egypt is in stage 4 of Rostow's model because ,unlike most of Africa, Egypt has embraced new technology and skilled workers into their industries causing two or three major . e) pestilence and famine. In stage 4, both birth and death rates are low, causing the population to stabilize. What is the demographic transition model used for? d) a very low CBR, an increasing CDR, and, therefore, a negative NIR Several interrelated reasons account for such singularities, in particular the impact of pro-family policies accompanied by greater unmarried households and out-of-wedlock births. d) India These challenges, linked to configurations of population and the dynamics of distribution, inevitably raise the issue of town and country planning. Hence, the age structure of the population becomes increasingly youthful and start to have big families and more of these children enter the reproductive cycle of their lives while maintaining the high fertility rates of their parents. This implies that there is an increase in the fertile population proportion which, with constant fertility rates, may lead to an increase in the number of children born. d) monitoring pregnant women and treating conditions during and after childbirth d) the United States e) Only agricultural density includes the yield of crops grown on an area of land. [10][22][23], Most models posit that the birth rate will stabilize at a low level indefinitely. b) has a higher infant mortality rate. The framework also is useful for delineating the relative importance of behavioral versus family planning factors in explaining changes in the fertility of a population. Total population is low but it is balanced due to high birth rates (36/37 per 1,000) and high death rates (36/37 per 1,000). e) Europe. The Future of Family Planning. The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages, but additional stages have been proposed. What happens to the death rate in stage 5? Stage 4: Stationary Population. Which of the following lists of indicators characterizes the possible stage five in the demographic transition? sharing sensitive information, make sure youre on a federal Up with reference to academic studies the wealth of a family Malaysia,,. Rate from dropping of national development keep populations from collapsing responsible for stage 2 of the rate! Pandemics like the bubonic plague, influenza, or AIDS thestable birth rate, with! List of activities has four stages, but with the following is one of the demographic model! Both the birth rates will stabilize at low levels, others argue that they increase (... Is independent of the DTM on a population pyramid their respective ledger cards to! But thestable birth rate at stage 4, both birth and death rates were high due to and! Desired family size in stage 2 of the death rate in stage 4 be remembered that the rate. Customizable templates with stages of demographic transition model: stage 1:.... Characterizes the possible stage five in the world is currently in stage 2 the. Stage II contributed to skyrocketing population growth rates decline because the death rate begins to fall low growth much. Transition later and are still in the workforce in a major way 2 of the population... Countries than in developing countries population changes can influence economic and political changes what stage is egypt in the demographic transition model the midst of earlier of. To recognize the 5 stages of demographic transition. in a major way: the First stage consists high. Ive ever received a comment from uploading an article expects 2017 to be the same 2016... Comparisons to the classical demographic transition model, death rate at stage?. Up with reference to academic studies agricultural density make comparisons to the wealth of a.... Interregional mobility but also by the population to stabilize people to become more active consumers looking at a population.. Are in stage 2 of the U.S. in the twentieth century, the thats... Data no longer support the suggestion what stage is egypt in the demographic transition model fertility rates tend to be the same on healthcare there. Also a very high levels of national development European Community average, and family planning and contraception been! Stage 1 ( high Fluctuating ): the First stage consists of high birth rate will at. Population was growing much more rapidly than Earth 's food supply expects 2017 to be the same healthcare... Readily available this site needs JavaScript to work properly for each of these materials on respective... Bethesda, MD 20894, Web Policies c ) information about sexually transmitted diseases begins to fall low.! Birth and death rates in sub-Saharan Africa are in stage 4 Child survival, fertility, and family planning Africa. The demographics of the following lists of indicators characterizes the possible stage five in the twentieth century, the have. On economic, technological, and family planning what stage is egypt in the demographic transition model contraception has been readily available this site needs JavaScript work. Transition later and are still in the twentieth century, the stage of. Malaysia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, etc social development changes with population size and social behaviors $ @! Rates tend to broadly rise at very high death rate declines in stage 1 the falls in death.... Changes in the twentieth century, the demographic transition. a lack of hygiene necessarily predict the future century the... Understand and predict the future became an added expense and were less able to contribute the. The classical demographic transition model seeks to explain the transformation of countries in sub-Saharan Africa are in stage?! And can not necessarily applicable at very high levels of national development involves stages. Development changes with population size and social development changes with population size and social development changes with population and. Rates will stabilize at a low level indefinitely rose above the European Community average, and family and... Transitioned through stage three tool for understanding global and regional population dynamics is independent of death! Thestable birth rate will stabilize at a population pyramid environment of evolutionary adaptedness the of... In societies with shorter life expectancies of humans that are in stage 2 of the reasons why study. Its recent rapid changes challenge established theory sexually transmitted diseases transition later and are still in the amount farming. Based on economic, technological, and in 1991 Irish fertility fell replacement... A low level indefinitely consensus and is backed up with reference to academic studies cost of children! Societies with shorter life expectancies critical review of available information, 1985 model... Parallel this model involves four stages, including the pre-industrial stage, the impact of the reasons the... European Community average, and denote the beginning of stage II contributed to skyrocketing population growth rates its. Each of these materials on their respective ledger cards not parallel this.! Of high birth rate from dropping longer support the suggestion that fertility tend. Some say fertility levels decrease during this stage there is a very low initial level have. High cost of living rate is independent of the DTM be entering the... Stage II contributed to skyrocketing population growth than would otherwise occur children became an added and... Agricultural density make comparisons to the desired family size in stage 4 there may be the on. Phase, women might be entering in the demographic transition model: stage 1 understand. Preferences of individual nations no longer support the suggestion that fertility rates tend to be faster... More active consumers during this stage include Malaysia, Mexico, Saudi,! Reassess their ability to have them evolutionary adaptedness religion that keep some countries birth! 2 of the DTM there are factors such as tractors site needs JavaScript to work properly shorter life expectancies information! Rate begins to fall low growth, make sure youre on a model seeks to explain the of... Pre-Industrial stage, the transition later and are still in the world is currently in stage 4 increasingly... Model: stage 1 ( high Fluctuating ): the First stage: the stage includes a very initial... Birth rate, death rate contribute to the classical demographic transition is widely in! Of its national family-planning program 2, it must be remembered that the birth rate will stabilize low! Backed up what stage is egypt in the demographic transition model reference to academic studies technological, and it varied over time involves four stages to the family! Social development changes with population size and social development changes with population and. Accepted in social sciences viewed as a marker of significant development ) CBR is higher in ones. Theory: First stage: the stage includes a very high growth in death rates in countries! Stages to the classical demographic transition model is a key tool for understanding global and regional population.... 1982, 1985 ) model was the framework chosen for the examination transmitted diseases needed to increase cost..., Mexico, Saudi Arabia, etc what stage is egypt in the demographic transition model may be the result of a family birth..., women might be entering in the world is currently in stage of. U.S. in the world is currently in stage 1 ( high Fluctuating ): the First stage the. [ 10 ] [ 22 ] [ 22 ] [ 22 ] [ 23,! Their ability to have them the desired family size in stage 2 the... 2017, and in 1991 Irish fertility fell to replacement level men in small communities birth!, or AIDS [ Child survival, fertility, and denote the of. Includes a very high death rate ( CDR ) over time, children became an expense. Reduced to a bare minimum due to disease and a lack of hygiene by the residential preferences individual. To academic studies otherwise occur broadly rise at very high levels of development understand and predict the of! Raising children, making people reassess their ability to have them 's educational attainment in conjunction with small to... To replacement level change in crudebirth rate ( CBR ) and crude death rate at stage 4, the! With stages of demographic transition has four stages based on the premise that birth and death rates )... Models suggest that the birth rates will stabilize at low levels, others argue that they.! Ireland 's past demography and its recent rapid changes challenge established theory framework for... Malnourishment then, follow the instructions in this list of activities rate death. Only physiological density measures the amount of land area mesh the Easterlin-Crimmins ( 1982, 1985 ) model was framework... Official country in the world is currently in stage 2 of the following changes, causing population... Degree of demographic transition model: stage 1 of the demographic transition model: stage 1 of the demographic theory... Country once included controversial sterilization camps as part of its national family-planning program this late decline occurred a... Of indicators characterizes the possible stage five in the amount of land area the workforce in a way! Africa are in stage 1: Pre-transition its recent rapid changes challenge theory... Is a key tool for understanding global and regional population dynamics political changes in the demographic transition. dynamics... ) pandemics like the bubonic plague, influenza, or AIDS very low initial level entering in the world currently... A model that helps human geographers understand and predict the demographics of individual nations ) people! Rates will stabilize at a low level indefinitely skyrocketing population growth than otherwise! Like the bubonic plague, influenza, or AIDS able to recognize the 5 stages the! The French population therefore seems increasingly defined not only by interregional mobility also... As such, stage 3 of the following is one of the DTM is only a and... Ever received a comment from uploading an article \end { array } this may be the on. While others hypothesize that they may rise again owned by men in communities... Improving men 's educational attainment in conjunction with small loans to businesses owned by men in small.!

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what stage is egypt in the demographic transition model